In 2025, we shared a detailed look at the Coffee “C Market” to help explain why green coffee prices had risen so sharply and why volatility had become a defining feature of the industry. As we move into 2026, it’s fair to say the conversation has shifted slightly - but the pressures on coffee pricing remain very real.
There are reasons for cautious optimism looking ahead. At the same time, the past 12–18 months have fundamentally changed the cost base of coffee, and those changes don’t unwind overnight.
The coffee market today: context matters
Over the last year, the coffee market has been operating in genuinely uncharted territory.
As of today, the C Price sits at 357.30 USc/lb — up 23% over the last six months and 12% year-on-year. To put that into perspective:
5-year average: 226.12 c/lb
10-year average: 173.69 c/lb
20-year average: 162.24 c/lb
In December 2024, the market broke through a price level that had stood since 1977. By February 2025, it reached an all-time high of 440.85 c/lb, with further rallies later in the year.
While those extreme highs are now behind us, they matter. They show that the coffee industry has been absorbing sustained, historically unprecedented costs, not short-term spikes. Many wholesale and retail price increases over recent years simply haven’t fully offset that reality.
Why prices are still under pressure - beyond the C Market
Even if the C Price trends downward through 2026, it is only one part of the picture.
Across all regions - including producers at origin, the broader cost environment continues to tighten:
Labour and statutory costs: Living wage and minimum wage increases, along with higher taxes and local rates
Energy, fuel and insurance: All trending upward, with volatility driven by global conflicts and supply constraints
Freight and logistics: Global container rates eased earlier in 2025 but began rising again in Q4, influenced by fuel costs, disrupted shipping lanes and tariff uncertainty
Domestic distribution: B2B and B2C freight costs remain elevated
Café operating costs: Dairy, food, packaging and consumables continue to rise, compressing margins across hospitality
What’s happening at origin
On the supply side, the market is still recovering from multiple consecutive years of deficit:
Significant global supply shortfalls in 2021/22 and 2022/23 due to frost, drought and flooding
A small surplus in 2023/24, but not enough to make up for earlier deficits
2024/25 likely flat to marginally positive, meaning recovery is ongoing rather than complete
One of the clearest signals of tight supply is global certified warehouse stocks, currently sitting around 400,000 bags. For context, healthy stock levels are typically 1–2 million bags. Anything below one million is considered tight.
It’s also important to remember that farming communities are dealing with very real challenges. In many producing countries, growers are facing rising costs for fertiliser, labour and transport, alongside increasing climate risks like drought, floods and unpredictable seasons. At the same time, after years of very low market prices, some producers are only just beginning to recover financially and reinvest in their farms — in soil, trees, equipment and working conditions for their people. That investment is essential for future supply, but it takes time and depends on farmers being able to earn sustainable incomes today.
Looking ahead to 2026
There is reason for optimism.
Brazil’s 2026 harvest is expected to be large, and positive outlooks are emerging for origins such as Ethiopia and Honduras. If weather conditions cooperate over the next 6–8 months, this could help rebalance global supply and bring some relief to the C Market.
However, Arabica coffee is likely to remain relatively tight while recovery continues, and the market remains highly sensitive to:
Weather events
Shipping disruptions
Fuel costs
Geopolitical uncertainty
In short: prices may ease, but a sharp collapse is unlikely in the near term.
The “so what?” for cafés and wholesale customers
This is the most important part.
Hospitality is operating in a crowded, competitive environment, and raising prices can feel risky. But the reality is that coffee remains one of the most underpriced items on many menus relative to the cost, care and labour involved.
What we consistently see across markets:
Small, well-considered coffee price increases protect margins far more than they affect customer behaviour
Customers are increasingly aware of rising costs and respond better to confident, transparent pricing
Quality, consistency and experience matter more than being the cheapest option
Absorbing costs indefinitely is often more damaging than adjusting prices gradually
In most cases, not increasing prices leads to harder compromises later — on quality, staffing, or sustainability.
Moving forward together
Coffee has always moved in cycles. What we’ve experienced recently has been unusual in both scale and duration - but it won’t define the future forever.
We believe in open conversations, realistic pricing, and long-term partnerships that allow everyone in the supply chain to remain healthy.
As always, thank you for being part of that journey with us.
Team Allpress
